Has anyone else noticed how this downturn has manifested itself? Allow me to illustrate:

WAS GM 1 - Loss
WAS GM 2 - Win
WAS GM 3 - Loss
MIL GM 1 - Loss
MIL GM 2 - Win
MIL GM 3 - Loss
STL GM 1 - Loss
STL GM 2 - Win
STL GM 3 - Loss
CIN GM 1 - Loss
CIN GM 2 - Win
CIN GM 3 - Loss

That's right, folks, the Cubs are currently in a pattern where they infallibly win the middle game in a series, while equally infallibly dropping the other two. The good news is, they don't get swept. The bad news is, if you win at a .333 clip long enough, the good news becomes moot.

Obviously, nothing good can happen relative to the season as a whole until they break that pattern. Naturally, they have to try doing that today against the best team in the Majors. Of course, if they can manage such a trick - in a positive way, I mean, realizing that getting broomified would also count as pattern alteration - it would, at least seemingly, have a lot more meaning than doing so in, say, the coming Pirates series. That said, remember that the sweep of the Mets was supposed to prove something, and this stretch of horror is what immediately followed.

Really, all I want are some wins, and some good play to build on. My schedule's clear. What say we do it now?

So, is it time for the 'Free Ronny Cedeno' movement yet? I swear, I never thought I'd write those words - that is, unless Cedeno were wrongly accused of a crime that I'd been a witness to, seeing it wasn't he that pulled the trigger, knowing with my eyes and heart that it was, in fact, the one-armed-man who'd done the deed. Ask me at the beginning of the year, and the fantastic scenario above would have been rated at approximately 217% more likely to spur a liberty campaign on Ronny's behalf than his play on the field.

Yet, here we are, a week into May, and I've come around to thinking that Ronny Effin Cedeno needs to be in the lineup everyday until he plays his way out of it. Next thing you know, I'll be buying Clay Aiken albums and putting ketchup on my hot dogs.

It's not just the results, either, it's way he's gotten them. His approach at the plate is so different as to call into question his identity. He's not a masked man, but perhaps someone with discipline and bat control has made himself a lovely Ronny Suit. Stranger things have happened. Last night's two-out, two-run single is an excellent example:

Down a strike, Harang throws Cedeno a breaking ball, but coming out of his hand it doesn't necessarily look like one. It's a pretty nice pitch, so it initially appears to be a fastball on the outer half, at least judging by Cedeno's reaction. Based on what he's seeing he has to swing, because he can't reasonably sit on a pitch that looks like a good one to drive up the line and let himself get down two strikes. Up to this point, what we're seeing is exactly what we'd see in years previous. What's changed isn't the choice to swing, but rather, the choice of how to swing.

Think back to days of yore - 2006, to be precise - and imagine a similar situation. Men on second and third in a one-run game, two-out, and Ronny Cedeno is at the plate. He sees what looks like a good pitch to hit hard up the line and - zoom! - out go his hands, his bat flies over the ball, and around on his front heel he spins, wondering why that pill done moved so much.

This time around, instead of letting his hands lead, he starts to shift his weight but keeps his grab-nabbers back because he's down 0-1, and with Harang having already tossed a slider for a strike, he might just come with another. What this does is put him in position to punch a fastball into right - because his weight has shifted, the most time consuming part of the swing - while giving him the time he needs to react to the flight and spin of the ball. Watching the replay, Cedeno clearly sees as his weight shifts that it is not, in fact, a fastball - you can see as you view the footage a little hitch in his swing, a small delay as he holds back to time the pitch he now sees is a breaker - adjusts accordingly, and dumps the ball into right.

It's these sort of adjustments, along with the fact that he's been able to both foul off tough pitches all year, while managing to draw his share of free passes, that make me think he's finally turned a corner. Probably not to the tune of .373/.458/.549, but certainly enough to justify putting him in the lineup every day. Perhaps even at shortstop. Perhaps even - hold onto your hats when I say this folks - in the leadoff spot. He's seeing a lot of pitches, he has good speed, and he seems to have mastered the art of bat control. More and more, he's looking like someone that, at least in the short term, you can put in that top spot and get a boost out of, which again, I can't honestly believe I'm saying.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to run to the store. I think I'm out of ketchup.

An odd combination of exhilaration and searing pain this week.  Let's relive some glory and pick some scabs.

Game 26
Opponent: Milwaukee
Result: Loss
Score: 10-7
Big Play: Mike Cameron's seventh-inning, two-out, two-RBI single.  The Brewers were already ahead, but that was the blow that essentially put the game out of reach on a night when no one seemed able to pitch.
Big Player: Cameron again.  3 for 5 with a walk, two RBI and two runs scored.  His presence was the spark that got the Brewers' offense to ignite.
We'll talk about this game next year because: It will be nail n, where n + x = Total nails needed to seal Jason Marquis' coffin.

Game 27
Opponent: Milwaukee
Result: Win
Score: 19-5
Big Play: Geovany Soto's first inning, three-run homer capped the six run inning that finished the game almost before it started.
Big Player: All Geo.  Two three-run homers will get you some love any day of the week, even when your six RBI account for less than a third of the offense.
We'll talk about this game next year because:  Who doesn't like to talk about being on the good side of a rout?

Game 28
Opponent: Milwaukee
Result: Loss
Score: 4-3
Big Play - Micro Version: Alfonso Soriano's misplay that became Gabe Kapler's ninth inning double that kicked open the door Kerry Wood had already left slightly ajar by plunking Craig Counsel.
Big Play - Macro Version: The fifth inning defensive play where, as we all found out after the game, Yovani Gallardo blew out his ACL.
Big Player: Ryan Braun, who was 3 for 5 with a homer, a double, and three RBI, the double being the hit that gave them their final lead.
We'll talk about this game next year because: The Cubs may have lost the game - and in dramatic, disappointing fashion - but the Brewers lost one of their best starting pitchers for the rest of the year.  As painful as the loss was, I'll take the Cubs' side of the bargain.

Game 29
Opponent: St. Louis
Result: Loss
Score: 5-3
Big Play: When Rich Hill was deservedly yanked after recording only two outs in the bottom of the first, the course of the game was set.  Although the Cubs came close to winning, once the game went into extras, and the need to deploy Chad Fox arose, the loss became all but inevitable.
Big Player: Hit a game winning homer in extras, you're the player of the game. I think that's the rule I learned first in Weekly Recap 101, so Skip Schumaker, this one's yours.
We'll talk about this game next year because: It will either mark the beginning of Rich Hill's return to usefulness via a vigorous search through the cornfields of Iowa, resulting in the eventual relocation of his Ding-A-Ling, or whatever it is he's lost, or it will be the start of Jon Lieber's permanent return to the rotation.  Perhaps both, depending on what x equals.

Game 30
Opponent: St. Louis
Result: Win
Score: 9-3
Big Play: Mike Fontenot hit the first homer of the year off of Kyle Lohse, a three-run job, giving the Cubs a 6-0 lead that they would never relinquish.
Big Player: Little Mikey Hottentot, hoppin' through the forest, scoopin' up the Cardinals, and boppin' 'em on the head.
We'll talk about this game next year because: After his third solid start in a row, it was the day we could finally breathe easy about Ted Lilly. 

Game 31
Opponent: St. Louis
Result: Loss
Score: 5-3
Big Play: The fourth inning, two-out, two-run double from Albert Pujols that gave the Cardinals the lead for good.
Big Player: Adam Kennedy, who got on base every time up, and drove in two runs to boot.  It was his walk with two out in the fourth that brought Albert Pujols to the plate.
We'll talk about this game next year because: Everyone likes to cry in their beer sometimes.

The Week That Was

Season Record	18-13
Season RS/RA	189/105
Week's Record	2-4
Week's RS/RA	44/32
Games Back	1.5
Change	-2.0

Those RS/RA figures are incredibly deceiving, considering the distribution of the Cubs' scoring this week.  The Cubs outscored their opponents 28-8 in their two victories, and were outscored 24-16 in their four losses.  Depending on your outlook, it can either be a source of profound frustration, or a silver lining, that the Cubs really only seemed to be out of Game 26, and even that one had some suspense.  In every loss this week you could make a case that a play here and there would have altered the outcome, and while it may make the results hard to take, the fact that the margins were so slim should be taken as a hopeful sign of an impending turnaround.

Here's the rather expected news that Rich Hill is on his way to Iowa, with Sean Gallagher taking his place on the roster, although not in the rotation. That slot is going to Jon Lieber, which despite what I wrote earlier, really makes the most short term sense. The club can't afford to wait for Marshall to stretch out, and Lieber's been too good to not give him the ball so he can take those innings that've been falling to the bullpen of late.

The big thing here is the hope that, out of the spotlight, Hill can figure out what the problem is, which near as I can tell, is almost entierly between his ears. I probably have more to say on this - I know a little something about overthinking during public performances - but I need some time to gather my thoughts. However, the short of it is, I think Hill has ceased to truly believe he can pitch. When asked, he says he believes in his ability, and he might even be fooling himself well enough that his conscious mind is in on the act, but it's obvious when he's throwing that he's feeling the stares of his detractors every time he makes a mistake, and that's something a Major League player cannot afford to do.

Hill needs to spend some time in Iowa, have the success he's almost certain to have, and regain control of the little demon in his head - the one that's whispering the false tale of his incompetence with every pitch. He needs it. The Cubs need it. Best of luck, Rich. We're rooting for you.

If I may be so gauche, I'd like to take a moment to quote myself.

These are heady days here in Cub Town. Winning eight out of nine and five in a row can make a fella giddy, especially when the last few games have been taken in such convincing fashion. It's important to remember, though, that these moments are fleeting. Later this season, when the Cubs have lost four of five and look listless, purposeless, helpless, take the lessons of the last week and recall again, that these moments are fleeting, that like the bliss before it, this horror too, shall pass. Then smile, and enjoy some baseball.

That was written on April 23rd. Seem like a lifetime ago? Well, that's what I was talking about, I suppose. It's an incredibly long season, and there are wonderful moments and terrible moments woven throughout. Joyful times, and sad times. Stretches of glory, and stretches of infamy. Now, after a lovely period of the former, we're immersed in the morass of the latter, which means it's time to remember, once again, that all things come to an end, and that as quickly as it all went sour, that it shall soon enough turn sweet again. I feel confident that this is a good team playing poorly, rather than a bad team showing its true colors, and that being the case, the reversal will arrive in due time.

So in that spirit, and since we're all too familiar with exactly what went wrong, I'd like to recount some positives from last night, speak a bit of things that went right, if only to remind us that even now as we slog through the mire of disappointment, it's not all bad.

• Jon Lieber continues to be a rock during times of crisis, so much so that despite the fact that Rich Hill clearly needs to go somewhere else for a while and get his head on straight, I'm not sure Liebs is the guy to take his place. Apparently, neither is Lou, as his post-game noise was along the lines of putting Marshall in the rotation, especially since Scott Eyre is nearly ready to return and take over the lefty-killing duties that have thus far belonged to Sean.

  If that action were taken, though, I'd expect we'd see something of a tandem start during Marshall's first few turns, since he's nowhere near being stretched out enough. Between Marshall and Lieber you'd be able to get a solid, long start's worth of work, and by the fourth turn or so Marshall would be able to handle five or six frames on his own, and Lieber could return to more normal bullpen duties, or else be stretched out enough himself to supplant what will by then likely be the all-too-horrible-to-bear work of Jason Marquis.

  I think the other hope inherent in this plan is that by the All-Star Break, Hill has cured himself by taking the waters of Des Moines, and that there's a difficult decision to be made regarding which solid starter Hill's re-emerging talent forces aside. A bit pie-in-the-sky to be sure, but not so unreasonable as to be deemed utterly ridiculous.

• Kudos to Bob Howry. My first thought when he entered the game was a sort of dismissive, 'there goes the neighborhood' notion, but he proved me wrong. Sure, a run scored, but since he had to get six outs in one inning to escape, he can be forgiven if a tally came to pass. Throwing as poorly as he has early on, it was nothing short of a herculean mental effort to keep his wits about him and stay focussed on the job at hand, but that he did, and in spades, following that work with yet another scoreless frame. Had the Cubs pulled out this victory, however undeserved, Howry's effort would have deserved substantial credit.

• Kudos also to Chad Fox, for while he gave up the winning run, he did manage to keep the team alive during the previous frame, and for a man in his situation, that's all that can be reasonably asked, and even that's a stretch. He has, indeed, made it back to the big time, and while I'd imagine he's unlikely to be there for long, what with the likelihood that his arm could explode and take out the surrounding countryside at a moment's notice, it's difficult not to root for a guy who's gone through so much. Here's hoping he's as successful as possible in the pursuit of his dream, and that whatever the end result, his efforts contribute positively to the club's greater goals.

Another match-up I don't like today, with Kyle Lohse - who's gotten it done this year with smoke and mirrors - versus Ted Lilly, who until his last start had only wished for such theatrical efficacy. I could be wrong - and often am - but I'm not looking at this game as the beginning of the turnaround. It'll come, I just don't feel it today.

I realize there are another 134 games yet to be played, and that even if the Cubs were to pile up 100 victories and make the question of who might win the division moot by September, that there will, indeed, be other losses like yesterday's. Still, I find myself in need of a bit of therapy this morning, so I'm going to confront my emotional demons by listing some of the reason's why this particular defeat is so hard to bear.

This loss smarts because:

• It was a loss to the Brewers
• It looked like a win for so long
• It knocked the Cubs out of first
• Now the Cardinals lead the division
• Fukudome was safe
• I doth, methinks, unhealthily adore Kerry Wood
• They all smart, dammit

You know, I don't actually feel better. I do, however, have a bucket of fear about this series against the Cards. The Cubs have played them extremely tough the last couple years, and all indications are this St. Louis club plays with a real chip on their shoulder. Add in that there's not one pitching matchup in this series that I like (although my trepidation about Sunday has less to do with facing Todd Wellemeyer than it does with sending Marquis to the bump), and I'm basically going to be an anxiety puddle for the next three days.

The thing is, I intellectually understand how silly this is - compare the team's current situation to last year's, and I'll take what's going on now hands down. It's the psychological effect of a tough loss beating me down - I get that. Had the game been one where the Brewers scored four in the first, with the Cubs striking back with three in the bottom of the frame and that score holding for the remainder of the contest, it would still be unpleasant, but not nearly as painful, despite the scores and results being identical.

So here it is. I know what I need. I need Rich Hill to throw a great game. I need the offense to wear down Adam Wainwright. I need tonight to be a psychological eraser, and I'd imagine the Cubs do to. We know what we need, boys, so let's go out and get it done.

It was improbable, all but inconceivable, really. Who, other than a certain group of blue-pinstriped men or a supernaturally prescient being, would say otherwise? But, incomprehensibly, Ryan Dempster has proved me very, very wrong: He has been a very good starting pitcher.

It was just a clever ploy masterminded by Jim Hendry, I told myself. Hendry would hope and pray that Dempster the starting pitcher would mow down the lackluster spring competition, and then leverage those mostly meaningless stats into a pre-season deal. Surely Hendry had no intention of letting Lou Piniella actually send Dempster to the mound every five days to start a game -- every five days out of the bullpen would have seemed more fitting. This, after all, was a pitcher whose career ERA as a starter bordered on five, who had not started a significant number of games in more than four years, and who is now on the wrong side of 30.

But there was no trade, no return to the bullpen, no spring training meltdown. And fantasy baseball owners snapped up Sean Marshall and Jon Lieber, just waiting for Dempster's inevitable failure and the subsequent hot-swapping. Perhaps they wait still; I hate to dampen this wondrous April, but regression to the mean is an inescapable foe. But fear not, dear owners: Jason Marquis, at least, remains a tried and true time bomb, ticking onward to mid-summer and his subsequent devolution into a pumpkin with arms.

I remain bewildered, though. How does a man go from essentially league-average as a reliever one year (99 ERA+) to stud starter the next (136 ERA+)? Maybe there's more to all that running up Camelback Mountain than we thought.

(Aside: One of my uncles lives in Phoenix, and for many years hiked the mountain regularly without water, no matter the blazing temperature. He still does his hikes, though less frequently and, so I'm told, with fluids in tow, after years of insistence from my aunt. Why he would need any encouragement to re-hydrate in such heat remains a mystery, though, much like how he always returned home alive, not shriveled.)

Or maybe it's something else. Dempster's not throwing more strikes, averaging, as he did last season, 1.7 strikes per ball. His strikeouts are down by more than two per nine innings to 5.35, and his walks are up half a walk per game to 4.62. Somehow, though, he's keeping batters from hits and home runs at, for his career, unprecedented rates. The key, I think, is this: more than 55 percent of all balls he allows in play are groundballs, almost matching the rate from his stellar 33-save 2005 season and up from 51 and 47 percent in 2006 and 2007, respectively.

That's an encouraging trend, if one that's highly dependent on the Cubs' infield defense. And from what I've seen, Dempster's been keeping the ball down -- it's unsurprising, then, that he's getting more grounders -- to great success.

I'll end with a question: Do any of you, dearest readers, have access to, or know where to find, Dempster's Pitch F/X data from last season? I'm curious to see the differences between this season and last.

I'm sitting at Reagan National waiting for my flight home. I had half a mind to go to a National's game last night, see the new stadium and all that. Then I realized that the Cubs would actually be on ESPN, and since I also happened to still be waiting for my ears to pop from the flight in, feeling suitably nervous about blowing a drum on my return (I took Benadryl about an hour ago, and I can tell it's working because I'm typing this on three phones with six hands), I took the less adventurous road and settled in for some hopefuly comforting TV.

That's exactly what I got. Other than the top of the first, the outcome was never in doubt, providing a perfect tonic for what ailed me. A nice, joyous romp, with Everyone's New Favorite Cub, Geovany Soto, flat out owning the joint. More please.

Gotta finish my Dunkin' Donuts coffee (which I truly don't understand the appeal of) and board my flight. More later, folks, and thanks for bearing with the silence of late.