The Cubs are supposedly close to signing a deal with last year's pleasant rotation surprise, Glendon Rusch. I think it's likely a good signing, but I'll hold off on that judgement until we see what the contract looks like.

One of these years looks not like the other:

YEAR   IP      H     HR   BB   SO    ERA
-----------------------------------------
2000   190.2   196   18   44   157   4.01
2001   179.0   216   23   43   156   4.63
2002   210.2   227   30   76   140   4.70
2003   123.1   171   11   45   93    6.42
2004   129.2   127   10   33   90    3.47

When Rusch was signed back in the spring of 2004, I was cautiously optimistic that he could, if need be, "provide some pretty okay innings at the end of the rotation." He provided some more-than-pretty okay innings out of the rotation: at times he was downright beautiful.

My optimism primarily sprung from the forehead of that 2003 hit-rate. Rusch has always given up a few more hits than it seems like he should, but based on his solid strikeout rate it just didn't make much sense to me that his tee-ball worthiness as a pitcher would continue. 171 hits in 123 innings? That looked like especially bad luck.

But should the Cubs bank on receiving a 3.47 ERA next year from Rusch? Probably not. Maybe he turned a corner I'm unaware of, but I'd expect him to slide a bit, providing perhaps an ERA in the mid fours. Considering Rusch would most likely be the fifth starter, that'd be absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.