
|
Marginalia
2005-06-16 07:12
In part one of what will be a concerted effort today to pretend that this didn't happen, I thought I'd take a very quick look at something I mentioned in yesterday's recap: average margin of victory. Just to quickly sum up, I found that during Monday and Tuesday's games that the winning team scored an average of 7.22 runs, while the losing squad put up 1.74 runs, for an average winning margin of 5.48 runs. That seemed pretty darn huge to me, and it got me wondering about what the average margins had been over the last few years. Thankfully, Retrosheet exists, and with a little manipulation of their yearly game log files, the answers came fairly easily.
While I expected the average margins to be lower than what we saw in those twenty-three games I looked at, the difference isn't nearly as large as I thought it would be. My surprise comes mostly with the average winning score and how that impacts the victory margin - a whopping (to me, at least) 3.57 over the last five seasons. I thought we'd be looking at an average margin somewhere in the mid-twos, but obviously, it's much higher. If I get some time I might take a look at how this era compares to seasons long past (unless someone's done it already, in which case, feel free to mention where to find it - I'm looking at this for kicks and because the Cubs got creamed yesterday, not for scholarly purposes, and I'd hate to simply be rehashing already completed work), because my guess is that it's historically high.
|
Hot from the Toaster
Search
Archives
2008 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 2007 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 2006 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 2005 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 2004 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 Write Derek at drksmart @ gmail.com Regular Reads: Blogs
Regular Reads: Not Blogs
Columns
Sites Fantasy Cubs Blog Army
Cubs Blog Army website
Cubs Resources
Big Media More Media Hangouts References and Tools
Syndication
About the Toaster
Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development. For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ. |
Not being worthy of the moniker 'Math Person' myself (I merely dabble occasionally for entertainment, and poorly at that), I thought there might be something to what you said, so I a re-ran the margins by creating a dataset of each actual margin of victory (subtracting, as you suggested, w-score from l-score up front), and averaged those numbers.
They were exactly the same. There's a math principal to be explained in here somewhere, but I'll be damned if I know what it is. ;-)
(A-B) + (C-D) is the same as (A+C)-(B+D)
ex.
(4-2) + (3-1) is the same as (4+3)-(2+1)
each time you get 4. I think that's the commutative rule, but I'm not sure.
Yeah, it's three all the way, both with individual seasons and with the whole group lumped together, which is why I didn't bother mentioning it.
To comment, please log in.
Not a member? Register!