So, what is it about the last game of a series against the Reds? In the six non-final contests they've had between them, the Cubs have allowed an average of 2.83 runs per game, sporting a 5-1 record. In those three series-enders, they've let in 9, 9, and now 12 runs, while not coincidentally, dropping each tilt. I see no causality, just an odd bit of timing that I can't refrain from pointing out.

* * * * *

Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.

I have a friend I met this year through my daughter's preschool who has season tickets, and occasonally has an open seat to offer. In fact, he was kind enough to provide a list of dates where, if the appropriate permission slips could be obtained, there would be an available spot should I be so inclined. A few weeks ago, he reminded me that one of those dates was approaching, so we made tentative plans to attend.

At first glance, we were going to a relatively non-descript game, nothing you'd look at the schedule and circle, but a chance to head to the ballpark is always welcome, and being lucky enough to have someone offer you an opportunity to go to a game without having to pay a broker or sit in the farthest reaches of the upper deck is a rare and cherished thing indeed.

Here's the thing. That game's tomorrow. Saturday. Rich Harden's debut.

Indeed, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.

* * * * *

Sometimes, even with a team as good as the Cubs, there are games you kinda expect to lose, where the pitchers facing each other seem so mismatched that no other conclusion seems viable. This afternoon offers just such a matchup, with my favorite whipping boy, Jason Marquis, squaring off against the man who a few short days ago taught the Cubs how to be owned, Matt Cain. If the storyline holds to the talent levels, we'll have a two-game losing streak on our hands.

Still, I happened to notice what was, perhaps, an even more eggregious mismatch on the books a couple days ago, yet lo and behold, Glendon Rusch and the Rockies defeated Ben Sheets and the Brewers, despite the projected outcome. The moral being, just because something is likely, doesn't mean it's assured.

Prove me wrong, boys. Happily, happily wrong.