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Knuckled and Daigled
2004-05-06 09:24
by alex ciepley

The Cubs offense has gone splat the past couple games, managing its only runs thanks to a Sosa 3-run job on Steve Sparks' last pitch on Tuesday night. The game against Sparks was just one of those things; every once in awhile, Sparks and his knuckleball are working, and game one of this series was such an instance. While it is frustrating to watch, a knuckleball pitcher who is throwing superbly can beat anyone -- I imagine the Yankees (at least pre-Aaron #&*%& Boone) would tell you as much based on last year's playoff matchup with the Boston Wakefields.

Last night's game was a shame, from the bits I saw. I arrived at the TV set late, after Wood had already left the game, and couldn't believe that the Cubs had failed to score off Jenny Finch's worse half. Was Daigle looking good, or was this another case of the Cubs awarding a Cy Young to an opponent scrub pitcher?

Things were looking up in the bottom of the 8th, with Urinetown Alou at the plate and the bases loaded. Alou had a great at-bat, taking some pitches, fouling off the close ones, and looked like he was ready to break out of his current mini-slump. And he did... almost. A crushed ball was hit just a bit too up-the-middle, and ended up squarely in season-series nemesis Steve Finley's paws.

Dusty Baker had an interesting observation after last night's game; an observation I'd been suspecting and that people had been talking about some in the comments on this site:

One thing for sure, this team is going to hit. You know when you rely on home runs, you're going to have some ups and downs. This is the team we have. We don't have a lot of speed. We have a lot of bangers - guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark.

This is a pretty accurate description of the ball club, though I would change the phrase "this team is going to hit" to "this team better hit, cause it sure as hell can't get on base any other way". The Cubs offense is completely reliant on the home run, more so than any other team in the majors:

        TEAM      HR   RUNS  RANK  % HR
-----------------------------------
1 Cubs 41 129 17 31.8
2 Phils 32 108 27 29.6
3 Cards 42 146 6 28.8
4 WSox 40 141 8 28.4
5 Marlins 35 129 17 27.1
6 A's 32 119 24 26.9
7 Expos 17 65 30 26.2
8 Rockies 40 156 5 25.6
9 Royals 33 129 17 25.6
10 Yanks 34 134 14 25.3
-----------------------------------
MEAN 21.9
The chart above shows a couple things: the number of bombs and runs scored, the runs scored rank overall in MLB, and the percentage of runs accounted for by individual home runs (i.e., I'm not counting 3-run homers as "3 runs scored by home run", just as 1 run).

Now, I don't really know what this means other than that the Cubs depend on dingers, but it isn't encouraging that the teams listed above are generally in the lower-half of runs scored in the majors, and include three of the worst offenses (Expos, Phils, and A's) to this point in the season. I suppose there are much worse things to be solely dependent on than the home run, but Baker's roller-coaster description of the offense seems like it is apt.

(UPDATE: my Excel file was screwy, temporarily listing the Devil Rays in the top-10 even though they weren't really, so I fixed and updated the entry)

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