In one short week, on June 1st, Carlos Zambrano will turn 23. This simple statement generates some controversy. There are some who believe Carlos is older, maybe even much older, than his listed age. These beliefs are generally based on some combination of the following:

1. Zambrano was born and raised in Latin America
2. Dude is huge, and has been huge for a while
3. Former Cubs pitching coach Oscar Acosta, back in 2001, said, "Everyone wants to lie about [Zambrano's] age. He's been 19 since I had him. What, in Venezuela they have three years for every one of ours?"
4. Zambrano has been exceedingly good.

These may seem like good reasons to many, though I would counter with:

1. Zambrano is from Venezuela, not the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela hasn't been subject to the same "age-gate" scandals that the D.R. has seen.
2. I don't really think it is all that uncommon to find big guys at young ages.
3. Acosta's weird comment came despite the fact that Zambrano's birth year has been listed the same in the Cubs media guide every year he's been with the organization.
4. Deal with it; he's great.

I'm not really interested in getting in a debate over his age, and I'd like to emphasize that I'm not dismissing the notion just because no one's proven it. I just don't see a compelling case for believing he's lied, and think much of the skepticism is rooted in ill-advised generalities about Latin players and their birth certificates. Could Carlos be older than listed? Sure, but call me crazy; I'd actually be pretty surprised if that were the case.

What I'm more interested in is reason four above, and it's a point that hasn't been getting nearly enough play throughout baseball. Here he is, in his second full season as a Major League starter, and he's been dominating. Zambrano is currently third in the league in ERA (2.08), third in WHIP (0.92), fourth in all of baseball in Baseball Prospectus's "SNW/L" statistic, and tenth in the majors in VORP, the latter lower ranking mostly due to having pitched in fewer games than some of his peers.

And he's doing this, let's emphasize again, before turning 23.

Zambrano isn't simply pitching like an ace. He's pitching at a historically great level for his age, and isn't getting a hill o' beans in press clippings for his efforts. Take a look at the following list, ranked by Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA).

1975-2004
AGE <= 22
  
RANK NAME                  RSAA    
1    Dwight Gooden         115   
2    Dave Rozema           57   
3    Frank Tanana          53   
4    Mark Prior            51   
4    Mark Fidrych          51   
6    Bret Saberhagen       42   
7    Mark Buehrle          38   
7    Dennis Eckersley      38   
9    Britt Burns           37   
10   Fernando Valenzuela   35   
11   Carlos Zambrano       34   
12   Pedro Martinez        33

This list holds a lot of promise, as well as quite a few "Tread Cautiously" signs. Ya got your Hall of Famers (Eckersley, Pedro), your All-Stars (Tanana, Saberhagen), your coulda-shoulda beens (Gooden, Valenzuela), and your spectacular flame-outs and injury cases (Rozema, Fidrych, Burns). Oh yeah, and some Mark Prior thrown in, too.

Which of these career paths Zambrano follows is still unknown, though Dusty and his crew would do well to ease up on the throttle if Z starts showing signs of fatigue. But my question is this: why isn't Zambrano heralded as a modern day Valenzuela? Why aren't fans lining up outside stadiums to see him pitch, like they did with Fidrych? Why isn't his rookie card the envy of the neighborhood, as were Gooden's and Saberhagen's?

Z's failure to capture the imagination of the baseball world isn't for his lack of personality. He's fire and brimstone, in constant debate with spirits visible only to himself. An admonishing glance downward, a look skyward, an angry fist-pounding-glove. Despite his constant gesticulations, he works quickly, mixing in a healthy dose of swings-and-misses with his usual fare -- soft grounders to the keystone. Zambrano is simply one of the most exciting pitchers to watch in baseball.

That baseball has yet to really figure this out is a mystery. Sure, he's almost always listed when discussing the Cubs' great pitching staff, but it often seems he's tacked on as added value: Prior, Wood, and oh yeah, that guy Victor Zambrano [sic], too. And even with the Big Two sidelined, Zambrano has had to play second fiddle to the Sudden Rise of Matt Clement, even though Zambrano has arguably been more effective than Clement. Just last Friday, in Chris Kahrl's Transaction Analysis for Baseball Prospectus, Kahrl wrote, "Now, it isn't so much that anybody in the [Cubs] rotation has pitched flat-out bad, as much as Matt Clement is the only guy left who's pitched well." This despite Zambrano outperforming Clement (who has obviously been no slouch) in BP's own pitching stats.

Well, all this negligence has got to stop. It's time to give Big Z his due. Happy Birthday, Carlos, a couple days early. Baseball may not be aware of what it is you've got, but we Cub fans are mighty thankful you're pitching for our team.