Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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In part one of what will be a concerted effort today to pretend that this didn't happen, I thought I'd take a very quick look at something I mentioned in yesterday's recap: average margin of victory.
Just to quickly sum up, I found that during Monday and Tuesday's games that the winning team scored an average of 7.22 runs, while the losing squad put up 1.74 runs, for an average winning margin of 5.48 runs. That seemed pretty darn huge to me, and it got me wondering about what the average margins had been over the last few years. Thankfully, Retrosheet exists, and with a little manipulation of their yearly game log files, the answers came fairly easily.
Year | Avg Winning Score | Avg Losing Score | Avg Margin |
---|---|---|---|
2000 | 6.96 | 3.32 | 3.64 |
2001 | 6.56 | 2.99 | 3.57 |
2002 | 6.37 | 2.86 | 3.51 |
2003 | 6.51 | 2.95 | 3.56 |
2004 | 6.59 | 3.04 | 3.55 |
2000-04 | 6.60 | 3.03 | 3.57 |
While I expected the average margins to be lower than what we saw in those twenty-three games I looked at, the difference isn't nearly as large as I thought it would be. My surprise comes mostly with the average winning score and how that impacts the victory margin - a whopping (to me, at least) 3.57 over the last five seasons.
I thought we'd be looking at an average margin somewhere in the mid-twos, but obviously, it's much higher. If I get some time I might take a look at how this era compares to seasons long past (unless someone's done it already, in which case, feel free to mention where to find it - I'm looking at this for kicks and because the Cubs got creamed yesterday, not for scholarly purposes, and I'd hate to simply be rehashing already completed work), because my guess is that it's historically high.
Not being worthy of the moniker 'Math Person' myself (I merely dabble occasionally for entertainment, and poorly at that), I thought there might be something to what you said, so I a re-ran the margins by creating a dataset of each actual margin of victory (subtracting, as you suggested, w-score from l-score up front), and averaged those numbers.
They were exactly the same. There's a math principal to be explained in here somewhere, but I'll be damned if I know what it is. ;-)
(A-B) + (C-D) is the same as (A+C)-(B+D)
ex.
(4-2) + (3-1) is the same as (4+3)-(2+1)
each time you get 4. I think that's the commutative rule, but I'm not sure.
Yeah, it's three all the way, both with individual seasons and with the whole group lumped together, which is why I didn't bother mentioning it.
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