Baseball Toaster Cub Town
Marginalia II - Cub Style
2005-06-16 14:14
by Derek Smart

A question came up in the comments regarding the difference between the Cubs' average margin of victory, and their average margin of defeat. Never one to back off from a challenge, I thought I'd take a peek. Here's what it's been like from 2000 to 2004:

ED NOTE: I forgot to mention that a "Blowout" was defined as a margin of 5 runs or more.

YearW-MarginL-MarginDifferenceOne-Run RecordBlowout RecordBlowout RS/RA

Honestly, I'm not sure how to interpret any of this, but I present it to you nonetheless, if only to some other folks' opinions. In general, it appears that the Cubs trend toward having larger margins of victory than margins of defeat - in other words, they tend to win bigger than they lose - but how they arrive at it, or what the root cause is - well, I just can't be certain. I'd love to hear some theories, because my brain simply isn't making anything coherent out of these numbers.

Oh, and at the risk of further muddying things, here's how it breaks out for this year so far.

YearW-MarginL-MarginDifferenceOne-Run RecordBlowout RecordBlowout RS/RA

Them's the figures, what the hell do they mean? Or do they mean anything at all?

2005-06-16 19:31:13
1.   rynox
Based on that, '04 was a much better year than '03. Strange. Maybe those numbers don't mean squat... ?
2005-06-16 20:24:44
2.   rynox
By the way, I want to make some predictions. I'm not very good at this, so I could be totally wrong, but here goes:

Right now Arizona is second in NL West (35-32). I want to be the first to predict that they will totally tank and end up 3rd in the division behind Dodgers.

I predict the Nationals & Phillies pitching can't keep up and ATL takes the NL east.

Wildcard will be fought between FLA & CHC, but I have an aweful feeling that FLA will end up with it. Depends on CHC's starting pitching. They need to pick it up.

Cubs next sweep comes against SF during the July 25-27 series.

2005-06-17 06:01:12
3.   cmat
What's considered to be a "blow-out" score?
2005-06-17 06:39:32
4.   Derek Smart
Sorry, I forgot to define that. A margin of 5+ runs is considered a blowout (that's what BBREF has in their yearly breakdowns, so a rolled with that).
2005-06-17 07:45:22
5.   Doug
rynox - In many ways, 2004 was a better season than 2003 (despite the obvious difference in their end results). Last year, the fate of the Cubs was in their own hands and they found themselves in the drivers seat for the Wild Card, whereas they were depending on the Brewers to help them in to the playoffs in 2003. The difference was their performance during the last 2 weeks of the season.

I agree that looking at those numbers makes 2004 look like a better season than 2003, except for the column on 1-run games. Depending on what school of thought you subscribe to, the Cubs were either really unlucky or couldn't come up with clutch hitting/pitching when they needed. I tend to subscribe to the "little bit of both" school.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.