Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Write Derek at drksmart @ gmail.com
Write Phil at phil.bencomo @ gmail.com
In case you eschew any Cub news source beyond this page, wrapping yourself in the cold comfort of repeated bouts of silence, able to know in your heart of hearts that were anything of real import to occur, like the Channel 4 News Team on a birthing panda, we would be there, bringing you the news that someone else reported first, do I have a flash for you: Uncle Lou is coming to town.
In fact, not only is this morning's word from the big three poisson envelopper that Jim Hendry's choice is made, ESPN.com - via ESPN Radio 1000 - is now reporting that Piniella has signed a three-year deal worth about $3M per year, and that the official announcement will come tomorrow.
I feel neither elation nor deflation at the prospect of seeing Piniella's peculiar brand of firestorm rage daily across the Wrigley Field landscape. To be honest, I know very little about his strategic tendencies, and the most I can glean from his previous work is that if you give him a good team he's unlikely to screw them up, which is about as much as one can ask.
In the end, this isn't so much about bringing in the best man for the job - although time may prove him to be just that. Rather, it's about gaining instant credibility with the fanbase. Now, when the front office says they intend to be competitive next year, most folks will take them seriously, even if use of logic belies the idea. While Dusty Baker deserved to be sent on his way, this year's specific instance of failure should only serve as one of many data points in favor of that conclusion. Make no mistake about it: had Piniella been at the helm this year, the team would have been just as bad.
This means there is a new reality to this situation - namely, that by hiring Piniella, whether intentionally or not, Hendry has put all the pressure to field a winner on himself. Lose 90 games again, and you have clearly removed the manager from fault, particularly when he comes with Piniella's perceived pedigree. Lose 90 games again, and someone else gets to fill the roster. That's the new reality, one I'm not so sure exists if Joe Girardi is the choice, and one I know remains unformed if Bruce Bochy were the choice.
Which is why, the more I think about it, the happier I am to see Lou on board, for his arrival would seem to me to signal one of two things: a team that will win in 2007, or a team with a new general manager in 2008. I like a) the best, but I'll settle for b) in a pinch.
It would be interesting to see a study from each year of the new managers selected. How many were recycled managers (previous big league managerial experience) and how many were first time managers, or managers hired from the minor leagues. It just seems like there are alot of recycled managers. Pinella to the Cubs. I mean, how many times has this guy been recycled now? What are the benefits or reasoning behind hiring so many recycled managers? I mean, weren't these guys fired for a reason in the first place? If I had a few gajillion dollars and had my own team, I'd hire the best manager I could, whether they were from the minors, college, or the recycle bin. vr, Xei
As for style, Lou's a hitter's manager. He hates pitchers and can't stomach walks, which actually leads to a quick hook (a nice change for the Cubs). Meanwhile, he essentially serves as a second hitting coach and loves the power game, even though his two most successfull teams (1990 Reds and 2001 M's) had more balanced offensive attacks. That's all very subjective, of course, the observations of a AL fan for the life of Lou's managerial career. I'm sure the guys at USS Mariner could provide much more.
The problem is his track record with young pitching, which honestly isn't very good. Now I don't know, maybe it really isn't Lou's fault - maybe it was the FO/pitching coach/minor league folks. But the record is nonetheless pretty damning.
Unless I missed something, the key to the Cubs success next year is their young pitching. Unless Sweet Lou had a Leyland-like revelation about young pitchers, it might be a long year in Chicago.
Ultimately I can't stop thinking that the Cubs' braintrust thinks they just hired the next Jim Leyland, and that the '07 Cubs will follow in the footsteps of the '06 Tigers. Color me skeptical. At least he can't take Joe Torre's job now.
This is also a trend of late, where the Cubs look at what the successful team of the moment has done and try to produce a replica themselves. They did it this last offseason in trying to emulate the White Sox by improving their "speed" and "defense".
Leaving alone the question of whether the appropriate factors were even identified, the big problem is, they see what they think the solution is, then wind up going after that solution by perfoming the baseball equivalent of a match manufacturer outsourcing their production to Atlantis ("Well, someone should have TOLD me it was underwater!").
If, as Cliff says, Pinella has a "quick hook," then the Cubs better carry about 12 relievers on their ML roster. Whatever they've learned from Rothschild over the past few years, it ain't had anything to do with finding the strike zone.
And Derek -- LOVED the esoteric "fish-wrap" reference. And here I thought those two years of high school French would never come in handy!
The '06 Cubs went 116-36!
But they still lost the World Series....
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