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Zambrano In Five Years: A Historical Perspective
2007-02-19 19:50
by Phil Bencomo

Carlos Zambrano is, without a question or even the slightest flicker of doubt, the ace of the Cubs' staff. He is both outstanding and overpowering, incredible and intense.

But as we wait for what is fully expected to be a historic contract, one question—not a doubt of the statement above, mind you—does arise, and to ignore it would be grossly negligent, an irresponsible act from one who supposes to call himself a Cubs fan.

What does the future hold for Carlos?

History is a powerful tool for learning about forthcoming events, if used correctly. Says one of my favorite science-fiction writers:

There's a right way and a wrong way to learn from history.

The wrong way is to make an analogy between some event in the past and our present situation, and then assume that everything will work the same.

For instance: Rome was the hyperpower of the ancient world, and it fell, so we're going to fall, too!

Analogies might make an interesting point or raise an intriguing possibility, but they prove nothing. America is like Rome in some ways, and radically different in others. You can't just ignore the differences and think you've said anything smart.

What's the right way? It's to discover general principles and then see if they work out consistently over time.

As Orson Scott Card said, history is useful not because it repeats itself, as the old, faulty adage goes, but because of the patterns that emerge, general trends that hold up over time. It is those historical tendencies that have applicable use in the present for the sake of the future.

That being said, what can history reveal about Zambrano and the years to come?

Let's start with statistical parallels.


YEARS W L WL% ERA ERA+ IP H SO
Carlos Zambrano 2001-2006 64 42 .604 3.29 132 977.0 799 865
Ramon Martinez 1988-1993 62 49 .559 3.35 108 951.3 830 713
Dave Boswell 1964-1970 67 54 .554 3.49 100 1036.3 823 865
Jim Maloney 1960-1965 75 46 .620 3.06 120 995.3 784 933
Pedro Martinez 1992-1997 65 39 .625 3.00 139 912.3 702 970
Ismael Valdez 1994-1999 61 54 .530 3.38 117 1025.0 963 756
Jim Nash 1966-1970 58 48 .547 3.21 106 905.7 803 681
Dan Petry 1979-1984 78 51 .605 3.52 113 1149.3 1068 608
Jake Peavy 2002-2006 57 45 .559 3.51 113 864.0 774 850
Andy Benes 1989-1993 59 54 .522 3.44 111 944.0 852 721
Steve Barber 1960-1963 57 38 .600 3.15 118 829.0 740 531
AVG 5 seasons 63 47 .572 3.32 114 961.2 833 865


The players above are the ten most statistically comparable to Zambrano through age 25. The numbers are, quite simply, outstanding. No one on the list had a losing record through age 25, or even a cumulative ERA less than league average, as illustrated by ERA+. Pedro Martinez stands tall, slender as he may be, as the pinnacle of greatness on the list. A career like Pedro's would be most welcome on the North Side.

But what became of this hallowed list? Does Fortune shine brightly on Z, or will his career end in shambles like so many other young pitchers? It is here, at this critical junction, that history becomes most useful.

Below we'll see how the next five years, the likely length of a Zambrano extension, went for each of Z's comparables.

YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Ramon Martinez 1994-1998 119 118 61 28 .685 3.56 780.1 688 601


Ramon Martinez provided solid production for most of the next five seasons, even finishing fifth in Cy Young Award voting in 1995—a season that included a no hitter on July 14 against the Marlins. But the elder of the two Martinez's on this list struggled with arm injuries from 1997-1999, and he eventually tore his rotator cuff in June of 1998. After that, he was never the same, and by age 33 Martinez was out of baseball.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Dave Boswell 1971 18 1 1 2 .333 4.66 29.0 35 17


Dave Boswell, unfortunately, fared far worse than Ramon. At age 24, already in his sixth year in the majors, Boswell suffered a shoulder injury pitching in the 11th inning of the ALCS against the Baltimore Orioles (and yes, Boswell started that game). The injury was a somber end to a 20-win season, and it would eventually end his career after 36 more appearances from 1970-1971. He pitched in his last game at age 26.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Jim Maloney 1966-1970 132 123 59 35 .628 3.28 823.1 699 659


Jim Maloney's career only barely lasted more than five years past 25; his last game came at age 31. One of the hardest throwing pitchers of the '60s, Maloney's career was derailed at 30 after arm injuries hit. But for the four seasons before, he was still a very effective pitcher. His strikeout total, in comparison to innings pitched, dipped dramatically, but his ERA only rose slightly, from 3.06 to 3.28.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Pedro Martinez 1998-2002 141 139 87 24 .784 2.27 980.0 704 1250


Pedro Martinez did not merely surpass his previous performance; he blew it away. If Boswell, with only a single season left after age 25, is the worst possible scenario for Z, then Pedro is the best.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Ismael Valdez 2000-2004 135 131 41 49 .456 4.97 751.2 845 390


In Ismael Valdez, fans saw a promising career drop off sharply after age 25, as has been seen many times and will, unfortunately, surely be seen again. He, in keeping with the theme, it seems, also was hit by injuries later in his career.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Jim Nash 1971-1972 52 31 10 16 .385 5.13 201.2 247 90


Jim Nash, like Boswell before him, only lasted one more season, hanging up his glove at age 27 in 1972 with barely a .500 career record.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Dan Petry 1985-1989 125 101 35 41 .461 4.39 680.0 652 343


Dan Petry, too, struggled through a few injuries and was generally ineffective after age 25. After recording 15 wins at 26, he didn't again reach 10 until age 31. Petry eventually finished his career in the bullpen.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Jake Peavy - - - - - - - - - -


Jake Peavy is still active and, like Z, is already an outstanding pitcher at age 25.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Andy Benes 1994-1998 152 150 59 53 .527 3.91 992.2 933 859


Andy Benes had several good seasons during his next five years, holding steady in many statistical categories. The highlight was an 18-10 season in 1996 when, as a 28-year-old, Benes finished third in Cy Young voting.


YEARS G GS W L WL% ERA IP H SO
Steve Barber 1964-1968 150 131 50 51 .495 3.23 811.2 702 543


Steve Barber had several outstanding seasons, even being named an All-Star in 1966, but he, too, succumbed to arm problems that began in '66 and then forced him into the bullpen.

* * * * *

Of the nine applicable pitchers listed, more than half struggled through arm injuries at some point in the five years between ages 25 and 30. Only two (Pedro Martinez and Barber) saw gains in cumulative ERA in that span. Five of the eight pitchers on the list who threw more than 900 innings before 26 suffered a career-shortening arm injury before age 30; Carlos threw 977 innings.

But before you leave feeling depressed, consider this: Most of the injuries happened in the 1960s and 1970s. Today's sports medicine and training staffs are far superior to those of 30 or 40 years ago. Players now quickly bounce back from an injury that was once career-ending (see: Tommy John surgery).

And when simply comparing physically, perhaps it is no coincidence that Benes, whose arm held up through age 30 quite well even with 944 innings before age 26, compares favorably with Z: Benes at 6'6" and 240 pounds, Carlos at 6'5" and 250 pounds.

* * * * *

But nothing yet has been written. The future will have to wait until spring.

The wise person, then, views history as a set of lessons to be learned, choices and ramifications to be considered and discussed, and mistakes that should never again be made. [Dune: The Battle of Corrin; Brian Herbert and Kevin J. Anderson]

Comments
2007-02-19 22:09:52
1.   Yu-Hsing Chen
But then this is the cubs we're talking about, so would it surprise you too much if Zambrano goes the Boswell path? or at least dissapoint ?
2007-02-20 11:13:56
2.   Sandus
This post just cemented my opinion that Pedro Martinez is the greatest pitcher to ever pick up a ball in my lifetime. Say what you will about Roger Clemens, but to do what Pedro did in that span and then to have it stopped only by arm troubles (something Clemens never had), let alone injury troubles and still have the kind of numbers he has says a lot about how good he really is/was.

Nobody else in the history of the game has had a ten year stretch like that. If Zambrano sports a line in his next 5 years even close to that '98-'02 ridiculousness, he'll be considered the greatest Cub pitcher ever.

2007-02-20 11:34:35
3.   Xeifrank
The Cubs just advanced to the finals in the Simulation Madness tournament with a four games to two victory over the Mets. Jacque Jones was the series MVP. Up next the winner of the Minnesota/Boston series.
http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/
vr, Xei

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