Carlos Zambrano is, without a question or even the slightest flicker of doubt, the ace of the Cubs' staff. He is both outstanding and overpowering, incredible and intense.

But as we wait for what is fully expected to be a historic contract, one question—not a doubt of the statement above, mind you—does arise, and to ignore it would be grossly negligent, an irresponsible act from one who supposes to call himself a Cubs fan.

What does the future hold for Carlos?

History is a powerful tool for learning about forthcoming events, if used correctly. Says one of my favorite science-fiction writers:

There's a right way and a wrong way to learn from history.

The wrong way is to make an analogy between some event in the past and our present situation, and then assume that everything will work the same.

For instance: Rome was the hyperpower of the ancient world, and it fell, so we're going to fall, too!

Analogies might make an interesting point or raise an intriguing possibility, but they prove nothing. America is like Rome in some ways, and radically different in others. You can't just ignore the differences and think you've said anything smart.

What's the right way? It's to discover general principles and then see if they work out consistently over time.

As Orson Scott Card said, history is useful not because it repeats itself, as the old, faulty adage goes, but because of the patterns that emerge, general trends that hold up over time. It is those historical tendencies that have applicable use in the present for the sake of the future.

That being said, what can history reveal about Zambrano and the years to come?

Let's start with statistical parallels.

	YEARS	W	L	WL%	ERA	ERA+	IP	H	SO
Carlos Zambrano	2001-2006	64	42	.604	3.29	132	977.0	799	865
Ramon Martinez	1988-1993	62	49	.559	3.35	108	951.3	830	713
Dave Boswell	1964-1970	67	54	.554	3.49	100	1036.3	823	865
Jim Maloney	1960-1965	75	46	.620	3.06	120	995.3	784	933
Pedro Martinez	1992-1997	65	39	.625	3.00	139	912.3	702	970
Ismael Valdez	1994-1999	61	54	.530	3.38	117	1025.0	963	756
Jim Nash	1966-1970	58	48	.547	3.21	106	905.7	803	681
Dan Petry	1979-1984	78	51	.605	3.52	113	1149.3	1068	608
Jake Peavy	2002-2006	57	45	.559	3.51	113	864.0	774	850
Andy Benes	1989-1993	59	54	.522	3.44	111	944.0	852	721
Steve Barber	1960-1963	57	38	.600	3.15	118	829.0	740	531
AVG	5 seasons	63	47	.572	3.32	114	961.2	833	865

The players above are the ten most statistically comparable to Zambrano through age 25. The numbers are, quite simply, outstanding. No one on the list had a losing record through age 25, or even a cumulative ERA less than league average, as illustrated by ERA+. Pedro Martinez stands tall, slender as he may be, as the pinnacle of greatness on the list. A career like Pedro's would be most welcome on the North Side.

But what became of this hallowed list? Does Fortune shine brightly on Z, or will his career end in shambles like so many other young pitchers? It is here, at this critical junction, that history becomes most useful.

Below we'll see how the next five years, the likely length of a Zambrano extension, went for each of Z's comparables.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Ramon Martinez	1994-1998	119	118	61	28	.685	3.56	780.1	688	601

Ramon Martinez provided solid production for most of the next five seasons, even finishing fifth in Cy Young Award voting in 1995—a season that included a no hitter on July 14 against the Marlins. But the elder of the two Martinez's on this list struggled with arm injuries from 1997-1999, and he eventually tore his rotator cuff in June of 1998. After that, he was never the same, and by age 33 Martinez was out of baseball.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Dave Boswell	1971	18	1	1	2	.333	4.66	29.0	35	17

Dave Boswell, unfortunately, fared far worse than Ramon. At age 24, already in his sixth year in the majors, Boswell suffered a shoulder injury pitching in the 11th inning of the ALCS against the Baltimore Orioles (and yes, Boswell started that game). The injury was a somber end to a 20-win season, and it would eventually end his career after 36 more appearances from 1970-1971. He pitched in his last game at age 26.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Jim Maloney	1966-1970	132	123	59	35	.628	3.28	823.1	699	659

Jim Maloney's career only barely lasted more than five years past 25; his last game came at age 31. One of the hardest throwing pitchers of the '60s, Maloney's career was derailed at 30 after arm injuries hit. But for the four seasons before, he was still a very effective pitcher. His strikeout total, in comparison to innings pitched, dipped dramatically, but his ERA only rose slightly, from 3.06 to 3.28.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Pedro Martinez	1998-2002	141	139	87	24	.784	2.27	980.0	704	1250

Pedro Martinez did not merely surpass his previous performance; he blew it away. If Boswell, with only a single season left after age 25, is the worst possible scenario for Z, then Pedro is the best.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Ismael Valdez	2000-2004	135	131	41	49	.456	4.97	751.2	845	390

In Ismael Valdez, fans saw a promising career drop off sharply after age 25, as has been seen many times and will, unfortunately, surely be seen again. He, in keeping with the theme, it seems, also was hit by injuries later in his career.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Jim Nash	1971-1972	52	31	10	16	.385	5.13	201.2	247	90

Jim Nash, like Boswell before him, only lasted one more season, hanging up his glove at age 27 in 1972 with barely a .500 career record.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Dan Petry	1985-1989	125	101	35	41	.461	4.39	680.0	652	343

Dan Petry, too, struggled through a few injuries and was generally ineffective after age 25. After recording 15 wins at 26, he didn't again reach 10 until age 31. Petry eventually finished his career in the bullpen.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Jake Peavy	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Jake Peavy is still active and, like Z, is already an outstanding pitcher at age 25.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Andy Benes	1994-1998	152	150	59	53	.527	3.91	992.2	933	859

Andy Benes had several good seasons during his next five years, holding steady in many statistical categories. The highlight was an 18-10 season in 1996 when, as a 28-year-old, Benes finished third in Cy Young voting.

	YEARS	G	GS	W	L	WL%	ERA	IP	H	SO
Steve Barber	1964-1968	150	131	50	51	.495	3.23	811.2	702	543

Steve Barber had several outstanding seasons, even being named an All-Star in 1966, but he, too, succumbed to arm problems that began in '66 and then forced him into the bullpen.

* * * * *

Of the nine applicable pitchers listed, more than half struggled through arm injuries at some point in the five years between ages 25 and 30. Only two (Pedro Martinez and Barber) saw gains in cumulative ERA in that span. Five of the eight pitchers on the list who threw more than 900 innings before 26 suffered a career-shortening arm injury before age 30; Carlos threw 977 innings.

But before you leave feeling depressed, consider this: Most of the injuries happened in the 1960s and 1970s. Today's sports medicine and training staffs are far superior to those of 30 or 40 years ago. Players now quickly bounce back from an injury that was once career-ending (see: Tommy John surgery).

And when simply comparing physically, perhaps it is no coincidence that Benes, whose arm held up through age 30 quite well even with 944 innings before age 26, compares favorably with Z: Benes at 6'6" and 240 pounds, Carlos at 6'5" and 250 pounds.

* * * * *

But nothing yet has been written. The future will have to wait until spring.

The wise person, then, views history as a set of lessons to be learned, choices and ramifications to be considered and discussed, and mistakes that should never again be made. [Dune: The Battle of Corrin; Brian Herbert and Kevin J. Anderson]