Baseball Toaster Cub Town
One Down, Four To Go
2006-01-27 20:28
by Derek Smart

As one can see from things I've written in the past, just about the last of the organization's five potential arbitration cases I expected to get settled was the one that came off the board today, with Mark Prior and the Cubs splitting it right down the middle and agreeing to a one-year, $3.65M deal. I was pretty obviously over optimistic about the whole process, because while I may have had Prior as the last to sign, he's also the guy whose signing date I guessed best.

Of course, I made my little predictions before the parties submitted their figures, and once that came down, I probably would have pegged Prior as the third to sign, and even assuming the club made his deal a priority, I would have expected something to happen first with the mere $250K gap between the team and Will Ohman. Still, it's good to get this done, because if someone has to be the first arb hearing for the current Cub regime, Prior's one of the two men in the process whom the team cannot afford to annoy.

2006-01-28 08:49:48
1.   shawndgoldman
Perhaps its best to use % of requested contract when predicting arb agreement order. Taking opposite extremes, if you and i disagree over $10 when negotiating the price of a house, we've got a done deal. However, if you and i disagree over $10 when negotiationg the price of a sandwich, we've got big problems. Here's the order they should fall if the best predictor is lowest (player figure - team figure)/(team figure) first:

1. Zambrano (.166...)
2. Prior (.175)
3. Pierre (0.230769230769230769...)
4. Hairston (0.25)
5. Ohman (0.333...)

This is also in decresaing order of contract size, so one could also argue that evidence in favor of this order could also be interpreted as a sign that teams take care of their stars first.

Clearly, i'm procrastinating here, time to get ito work...

2006-01-30 06:22:56
2.   The Boar
I'm cautiously optimistic that the delay with Zambrano is due to both sides trying to work out a multi-year (hopefully 4 or more) deal. The same could be happening with Pierre, though Hendry would hopefully like to see what the speedster can do after a sub-par 2005. I'm not too worried about Hairston and Ohman -- send them to arbitration and stop the press from talking about this stupid "McPhail and Hendry have never gone to arbitration" nonsense
2006-01-30 08:28:52
3.   Ivy Walls
Read Pat O'Reily's book about the 80/20 rule. 80% of a team's success (or performance) come from 20% of the players and that is where you concentrate your effort. All others must submit and support the 20%. By all accounts Prior and Zambrano are the stars so logic suggests that Hendry & Co are concentrating on them. Prior was easier he had a contract, voided and got a raise.

Zambrano is more complicated, he is establishing his price for the FA year.

As for the rest. Ohman will settle it is small potatoes. Hairston is tactical and if he goes to a hearing it will be his loss. Pierre is another story this is a strange one, way over the % and #'s. But look, if it goes this way those two are not organizational guys.

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